Compute the Results

The next step in your analysis is:

  • To get more detailed "Profit/Loss" analysis
  • To find out your break-even level
  • To perform "Probability Analysis"
In PowerAnalyzer all these are one click away. Click on the "Compute" button and PowerAnalyzer will provide you with all results.

Look at the next picture.

The new fields that appear on your screen is as follows:

  • "Prob. Of Profit"
  • "Exp. P/L"
  • "Sum Delta"
  • "Price/Profit/Probability" table

The first three of these are located in the middle of the above screen display, in the 4th row, to the right of "Current Date". The last is located in the matrix on the lower right of the screen.

We already know what the "Prob. Of Profit" and "Exp. P/L" fields are (see "Expected Profit/Loss" preceding page).

The "Sum Delta" field is showing a "Summary Delta" for the entire strategy. "Delta" is the rate of change in an Option's price relative to a one unit of change in the price of the underlying asset. For example, if a "Call Option" on a stock has a "Delta" of 0.50 and the price of the stock increases one dollar, the Option's price should increase by 50 cents ($1.00 times 0.50). So, in the above display, the strategy has a delta of +0.23. This means that the position can be expected to make almost a quarter of a point if the underlying stock moves up by one point. Of course, in actual trading, it would be impossible to capture that profit so quickly because of the bid-asked spreads in the individual options.

Now lets take a look at one of the most important information tools that PowerAnalyzer provides, the "Price/Profit/Probability" table. This table allows you to visualize what would be your "Profit" or, unfortunately, "Losses" if price of the underlying asset will move to the indicated "Price Point".

It also gives you information on Probability of price of the underlying asset being Less or Equal to correlated Price Point on the Target Date, based on the Volatility you selected in the "Use Vol. for Target" field. In the above calculations we used "1 Day Implied Volatility".

Later you will be shown how to change the Volatility and produce a more in-depth analysis, but for right now lets stay with the "Price/Profit/Probability" table. If you scroll through this table you will find your breaking point and probability of Underlying price end on a Target Date in a certain price range. As you can see in our example, price points and profits change from red to black between prices of $32.365 and $34.876. This means that our breaking point is roughly halfway between, at $33.50, and the Probability that the price of "SPYG" would be equal to or less than $33.50 on June 17, 2000, based on "1 Day Implied Volatility" of 163.46%, is approximately 38% (roughly halfway between 35.94% and 40.52%). If you would like a visual representation of all these numbers, click on the "Profit/Loss Graph", which is the button on the top row, far right.

Profit/Loss Graph: if you draw the profit graph, the profits are shown (Y-axis scale) versus the stock price (X-axis scale) at the analysis date you selected. If you left click your mouse anywhere on the graph, a vertical line will appear, and the exact numbers for where that line is placed are shown in boxes to the right of the graph. Also, at the top, there is a box entitled "desired profit". If you put something in there and then click on the blue "Display" button, PowerAnalyzer will tell you the probability of making that profit, and it will draw a horizontal line on the graph that corresponds to the profit amount you have asked to analyse.

We have quite a few customers contacting us to inquire if PowerAnalyzer can calculate Standard Deviation of Price movement. The primary reason we receive these calls is due to the fact that most of the books on option trading, as well as some option educators and teachers, teach how to build certain probability trades based on the value of Standard Deviation. With PowerAnalyzer you do not have to calculate Standard Deviation, you don't even have to know what Standard Deviation means, unless of course you want to learn the mathematics behind options trading. PowerAnalyzer is designed to be user friendly. It is performing the calculations and conversions behind the screen and providing you information in an easy to understand format.

PowerAnalyzer does not require you to look for the Strike, which is 1 Standard Deviation away from the current price. Simply scroll through the "Price/Profit/Probability" table until you find the Probability you are looking for and the correlated Price point. That simple!

As mentioned before, by using the "Price/Profit/Probability" table you can also calculate the probability that the price of the underlying stock will stay in a certain interval between two price points. Scroll through the table, find the two price points you are interested in and subtract the lower of the two correlated probabilities from the higher one. The result will be exactly what are you looking for - the Probability of the underlying stock staying between the selected Price points.

For example, lets say you want to find out what the probability is that "SPYG" will end up on June 17, 2000 between $30.034 and $40.50, based again on Volatility equaling 163.46%. You will need to subtract the probability of stock being less or equal $30.034, which is 31.56% (see the table), from the probability of 50%, which is correlated with the price point of $40.50 The result would be 18.44%. Simple, isn't it?


 

Intro
How to Start
Strategies
Expected Profit/Loss
Compute the Results
Volatility
Market Alerts
Covered Calls
Straddles
Spreads
New Features:
Analysis Using Current Prices